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Economic News
Polish companies’ revenue growth prospects in 2012 – expectations of entrepreneurs and analysts
Polish companies ended the year 2012 in relatively good financial condition
“In Q4 2011 the economic standing of firms continued to be good … [just as it was] throughout the entire previous year …,” the newest, January-published “Information on the condition of the enterprise sector …” by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reads. NBP’s indicator BOSE (indicator of the current assessment of economic situation) for Polish enterprises increased by 1.3 pp q/q in Q4, “attaining a level slightly higher than the long-term average”. In Q4, as many as 75.7% of companies saw their situation as very good or good, whereas in the previous quarter such view was held by 75.1% of firms. “BOSE indicator remained at a stable level throughout the year 2011 despite a clear pessimism of forecasts,” NBP economists remarked.
The pooled net profit of thirty four largest non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange could have increased in 2011 by over 58%, hitting the level of PLN 30.7 bln, according to the estimates of ten brokerages as published by the business daily Parkiet in its February 3 issue. The pooled 2011 revenues of the same group of companies might have increased by over 23% y/y, amounting to PLN 322.2 bln, the analysts quoted by Parkiet estimate. However, one should not overestimate the positive meaning of the data – the analysts citied by the daily make the reservation that the heady increase of the pooled profit of Poland’s largest companies in Q4 was to a large extent due to KGHM, PGE and PKN Orlen’s booking of their one-off profits from the sale of their stakes in Polkomtel.
National Bank of Poland’s indicator BOSE (indicator of the current assessment of economic situation) published in „Information on the condition of the enterprise sector with a particular focus on business conditions in 2011 Q4 and the forecast for 2012 Q1”
Source: National Bank of Poland’s
Polish entrepreneurs are cautious in their expectations for 2012
While Polish companies assess their current situation rather positively, their expectations for the current year are marked by a high degree of caution. The NBP report reads: “Their [companies’] expectations, however, are increasingly marked with pessimism. Enterprises' forecasts are being heavily influenced by the turmoil in the euro area and the anticipated economic slow-down.” The NBP-calculated, seasonally adjusted leading indicator WPSE (indicator of economic situation forecasts) fell by 4.1 pps q/q and 10.9 pps y/y in Q4 and amounted to 4.7 pts, remaining visibly below its long-term average. “A deterioration of the economic situation in Q1 [2012], is anticipated by more companies of the sample than is the situation’s improvement,” the central bank experts underscore.
A similar message is sent by the Polish edition of the fifteenth annual research “Global CEO Survey 2012”, published towards the end of January by advisory PwC. The research is based on 1,258 interviews with management board members of the world’s largest companies, whereas the research’s Polish edition involves interviews with 76 persons holding key positions in Polish companies. The PwC survey indicates unequivocally that the level of optimism of Polish entrepreneurs has decreased significantly in the course of the last year. The percentage share of PwC’s Polish respondents who were very confident about their companies’ prospects for revenue growth in the coming 12 months stood at 28% in the newest edition of the research, a level much lower than 70% recorded in the previous edition of the survey. Polish entrepreneurs were slightly more optimistic about their long-term prospects: 33% of PwC’s interviewees were very confident about their firms’ growth prospects in the coming 3 years. In order to see the big picture, one should also consider those of Polish businessmen who expected that their revenues would “rather increase” – they make up 47% of the respondents for the 12 –month perspective and 54% for the three-year perspective. The attitude presented by this group might be called a cautious optimism.
Interestingly, PwC research shows that the level of optimism by Polish entrepreneurs is lower than the average for the managers surveyed by PwC all over the world: the confidence about companies’ revenue growth prospects within the coming 12 months and 3 years was declared respectively by 40% and 47% respondents of PwC research’s global edition (while the corresponding figures for Polish businessmen are 28% and 33%).
Expectations of the Polish enterprises for the year 2012, however, are not entirely consistent across the private sector. Results of a recent research by the bank Pekao suggest that Poland’s micro and small businesses view the year 2012 with a moderate optimism. Bank Pekao’s leading general indicator of economic sentiment among micro and small firms for 2012, published mid-January in the second edition of the bank’s “Report on the situation of micro and small enterprises”, being at the level of 95 pts, is by 6 pts higher than the corresponding indicator assessing the sentiment in 2011. A reservation has to be made at this point, however, that the optimism about the year 2012 displayed by small-scale entrepreneurs is still moderate, as the neutral value of Pekao’s indicator is 100 pts.
National Bank of Poland’s seasonally adjusted leading indicator WPSE (indicator of economic situation forecasts) published in „Information on the condition of the enterprise sector with a particular focus on business conditions in 2011 Q4 and the forecast for 2012 Q1”
Source: National Bank of Poland’s
Analysts forecast decline in profits of Polish largest companies in 2012
Pooled net profit of thirty four largest non-financial companies listed on the WSE are to decrease by over 30% y/y his year, with the companies’ pooled revenues growing by over 7% y/y in the same period, forecasts by ten brokerages compiled by the daily Parkiet indicate. Some analysts expect that, in terms corporate financial performance, the current year will be divided into two stages. DM BOS brokerage’s analyst Lukasz Bugaj quoted by the daily puts it this way: “In the first half of the year, the companies will still be feeling the last year’s market breakdown and the aggravation of the eurozone’s crisis …. In the second half of the year, provided that there are no negative macroeconomic impulses, the companies should function better.”
Poland financial results of thirty four largest non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange – data for 2010 and forecasts for 2011 and 2012, according to the estimates of ten brokerages as published by the business daily Parkiet in its February 3, 2012 issue (in PLN bln)
Source: the business daily Parkiet in its February 3, 2012 issue
Source - Polish Press Agency, Economic Service
Author : Investor Relations Department
Statystyka strony: 132 wizyt
